I thought this was interesting - although I'm not sure of it's practical application yet...... I stumbled over it when digging around for more info related to Margie's post about the World Breeding Federation/ FEI analysis of worldwide top breeds for Eventing. While it doesn't really shed any light on actual breed performance, it is kinda interesting......

A French study over the last four years has identified nine tests on young horses that can determine their likely temperament as an adult. The National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA) found that the temperament of horses can be predicted reliably from eight months of age. The INRA developed its tests by studying 350 horses over several years at Tours, France. More than 30 tests were developed to measure different aspects of temperament such as fear, social motivation, reactions to humans, and general levels of activity.

After three years of research, nine of the tests were retained because of their ease of application, repeatability and reliability. This study also found that genetic factors could influence behavioral developments. Depending on their father, some horses were more fearful, more socially motivated or more reactive towards humans than others.  I have to say - I always thought the mare was more responsible for the baby's social interaction and "learned" personality because generally the babies pick up on mom's place in the pecking order and their personalities are formed accordingly. At least that is what I have personally observed. So mom was always at least as important than dad to me, in choosing a possible eventer. This study seems to indicate otherwise.....

A gender effect was also observed in that, geldings were more fearful, more reactive towards humans, less socially motivated and less active than mares.

The scientists say that a young horse's reactions to the following tests will paint a clear picture of its temperament:

1. Open an umbrella in front of the foal and watch how far it retreats.
2. Put a sheet on the ground between the foal and its dinner. Does the animal go around or over it?
3. Touch the foal around it's wither with a fine filament and see how much the muscles quiver. Some horses will always quiver, while others will not react at all.
4. Put two foals together, then remove one for 80 seconds. Analyse the other's reaction.
5. Stand still in front of the foal for 90 seconds and observe its behavior.
6. Assess how easy it is to put on a halter. Is it moving around, biting, or sniffing?
7. Touch the foal's hind quarters and watch whether its stomach muscles contract.
8. Measure the foal's reaction when put in an unknown stable.
9. Assess the foal's general activity levels throughout the tests.

As well as being able to predict the temperament of horses, the aim of the study was also to determine which temperament was best suited to different uses.  A link was sought between the different temperament aspects identified and the aptitude of horses to being broken in (handling, lunging, jumping, walking outside).  The study identified two types of horse personality:

The first profile corresponded to less fearful horses which reacted little to humans and were not very socially motivated and active.  These horses proved to be the easiest to handle, so this profile would this better suited to leisure riding. 

The second profile corresponded to more fearful horses, reacting more to humans and more socially motivated and active.  These horses proved to be more difficult to handle, but were more successful over jumps and at dressage.

Unfortunately INRA doesn't seem to have published the actual results, so without repeating the exercise multiple times, it would be difficult to draw conclusions about one's own horses. Experienced horse people will know instinctively how their youngsters are likely to perform, but this could be useful information for people looking to buy a young horse. Thinking about it, this really just confirms what we already know -and is the same for any species including humans - there are couch potatoes and there are people that "do" stuff. Event horses are "people that do stuff"!